Bitcoin halving countdown

What the halving actually does

Every 210,000 blocks the reward paid to the miner of each new block is cut in half. This is the mechanism that makes Bitcoin's issuance schedule fixed and decreasing: sum the subsidy across all eras and the total converges just under 21 million. It is not a policy that anyone can revise. Every node independently rejects a block paying more than the schedule allows.

What it does to miners

Miner revenue is the subsidy plus transaction fees. A halving cuts the subsidy half overnight while costs stay where they were, so the least efficient capacity becomes unprofitable and leaves unless price or fee revenue compensates. Difficulty then adjusts downward, making mining easier for whoever remains. The system absorbs the shock by design.

What it does not do

It does not guarantee anything about price. The supply effect is certain and mechanical; the price effect is an argument, made from four observations, in a period when almost every variable was also changing. We report the mechanics as fact and the price claims as claims — and we will not put a date-and-target headline on a four-sample pattern.